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The Fourth of July holiday is this weekend and tiempo mañana conditions could decide whether or not fireworks displays will go on as planned this year. Below we rank four regions of the Lower 48 from worst to best for fireworks this year based on expected tiempo mañana conditions.

4. West Why The Rank: A serious drought, gusty winds, and a few scattered showers and storms Best Places to Watch: San Diego, Seattle, Portland The Details: Nearly 84% of the region is in some level of drought and gusty winds may add an extra fire threat concern from interior California into parts of the Southwest, Utah, Colorado, eastern Wyoming and eastern Montana. That combo will make it hazardous for fireworks this holiday and some communities have already canceled or banned them. Watch Out For: A few scattered showers and storms are also possible in parts of the Northern Tier that aren’t in drought which could interfere with shows.

3. Midwest Why The Rank: Showers, thunderstorms, gusty winds, and a growing drought Best Places to Watch: Kansas City, St. Louis, Louisville, Omaha The Details: Sunday: An active tiempo mañana pattern will bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms to portions of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest on Sunday night. Fourth of July: Showers and thunderstorms will move into the Great Lakes region. Gusty winds are possible at times in the Plains, as well as into the upper-Mississippi Valley on Monday night.

Watch Out For: Drought conditions from western Kansas into much of Nebraska and northwestern Iowa. Moderate drought, along with abnormally dry conditions have also become more widespread in the Midwest over the last month. Some additional precautions are a good idea to limit the threat of a fire quickly spreading.

2. South Why The Rank: Scattered thunderstorms and some drought Best Places to Watch: Miami, Little Rock, New Orleans, Memphis The Details: Conditions in the South will be a mixed bag for the Fourth of July holiday this year. Scattered thunderstorms may dampen plans in portions of the Southeast on both Sunday and Monday evenings. Areas farther west will be generally luckier, with dry conditions and mostly clear skies. Watch Out For: Gusty winds will add to safety concerns from much of Texas into western Oklahoma and western Kansas due to ongoing drought conditions.

1. Northeast Why The Rank: Most of the region will be dry, and drought is much more limited Best Places to Watch: Boston, New York, Washington The Details: Sunday: Sunday night might be better for fireworks across the region as dry and clear conditions are anticipated. Fourth of July: Dry conditions are expected for most of the region, with the exception of locations closer to the Great Lakes and far northern New England where a few showers are possible Monday night. Winds will also generally be light but cloud cover will be increasing due to an approaching system. Watch Out For: Cloudy conditions in New York City; gusty winds and emerging drought in Boston.